Showing 1 - 50 of 84 Items

Date: 2011-05-11

Creator: Stephen Meardon

Access: Open access

Condy Raguet (1784-1842) was the first Chargé d’Affaires from the United States to Brazil and a conspicuous author of political economy from the 1820s to the early 1840s. He contributed to the era’s free-trade doctrine as editor of influential periodicals, most notably The Banner of the Constitution. Before leading the free-trade cause, however, he was poised to negotiate a reciprocity treaty between the United States and Brazil, acting under the authority of Secretary of State and protectionist apostle Henry Clay. Raguet’s career and ideas provide a window into the uncertain relationship of reciprocity to the cause of free trade.

Date: 2019-01-01

Creator: Matthew Botsch, Victoria Vanasco

Access: Open access

This paper studies bank learning through repeated interactions with borrowers from a new perspective. To understand learning by lending, we adapt a methodology from labor economics to analyze how loan contract terms evolve as banks acquire new information about borrowers. We construct “proxy” variables for this information using data from borrowers’ out-of-sample, future credit performance. Due to the timing of their construction, banks could not have used these variables directly to price loans. We nonetheless find that these proxies increasingly predict loan prices as relationships progress, even after controlling for possible omitted variable bias. Our methodology provides strong evidence that: (a) bank learning affects loan prices, and (b) relationship benefits are heterogeneous. In particular, higher quality borrowers face differentially lower spreads as their relationship with lenders develop – and banks learn about their quality – while lower quality borrowers see loan prices increase and their loan amounts fall. We further find suggestive evidence that banks incorporate CEO-specific information into loan prices.

Date: 2014-01-01

Creator: Stephen Meardon

Access: Open access

The most conspicuous idea of Charles P. Kindleberger’s later career is the value of a single country acting as stabilizer of an international economy prone to instability. It runs through his widely read books, The World in Depression, 1929-1939 (1973), Manias, Panics, and Crashes (1978), A Financial History of Western Europe (1984), and kindred works. This essay traces Kindleberger’s attachment to the idea of “hegemonic stability” back to his tenure as chief of the State Department’s Division of German and Austrian Economic Affairs from 1945 to 1947 and adviser to the European Recovery Program from 1947 to 1948. In both capacities Kindleberger observed and participated indirectly in the 1948 monetary reform in Western Germany. In the 1990s, during his octogenary decade, he revisited the German monetary reform with a fellow participant, economist, and longtime friend, F. Taylor Ostrander. Their collaborative essay became Kindleberger’s effort to reclaim hegemonic stability theory from the scholars who developed it following his works of the 1970s and 1980s.

Date: 2014-01-01

Creator: Stephen Meardon

Access: Open access

Date: 2012-09-01

Creator: Yao Tang, Ke Pang

Access: Open access

We compare the welfare of different combinations of monetary and currency policies in an open-economy macroeconomic model that incorporates two important features of many small economies: a high level of vertical international trade and a prevalent use of a large trade partner's currency as the invoicing currency for both imports and exports. In this environment, a small economy prefers a fixed exchange rate regime over a flexible regime, while the larger economy prefers a flexible exchange rate regime. There are two main causes underlying our results. First, in the presence of sticky prices, relative prices adjust through changes in the exchange rate. Multiple stages of production and trade make it more difficult for one exchange rate to balance the whole economy by adjusting several relative prices throughout the vertical chain of production and trade. Namely, there is a trade-off between delivering an efficient relative price between home and foreign final goods and delivering an efficient relative price between home and foreign intermediate goods. Second, because the small economy uses the larger economy's currency in trade, it faces a high degree of exchange rate pass-through under a flexible regime and hence suffers from the lack of efficient relative prices in vertical trade. The larger economy, however, does not face this problem because its level of exchange rate pass-through is low.

Date: 2024-02-20

Creator: Stephen Meardon

Access: Open access

Henry C. Carey led a school of post-Civil War U.S. currency doctors prescribing an “elastic currency,” expanding and contracting according to commercial needs. The problem for the Careyites was reconciling elasticity, which implied inconvertibility with gold, with the related aim of decentralized financial power. Careyite currency doctors included, among others, Wallace P. Groom, editor of the New York Mercantile Journal, and Henry Carey Baird, Carey’s own nephew and inheritor of his mantle. Their prescribed reform of the banking system featured a financial innovation that would remove superfluous currency from circulation while supplying what was needed. The innovation was an “interconvertible bond,” a debt instrument of the U.S. Treasury that was to be issued upon demand and redeemable for currency at the option of the holder. Its function was supposed to be like the mechanical governor of a steam engine, operating by a “subtle principle” that obviated human governing power and discretion. The Carey school’s prescription and its rationale remained salient up to the advent of the Federal Reserve System.

Date: 2015-05-01

Creator: Daniel F. Stone

Access: Open access

Opportunity cost is widely considered to be a fundamental concept in economics. But the definition of the term continues to be both unclear and controversial. I describe how the term is widely used in two distinct ways, both in academic and non-academic contexts. I propose a practical way for educators to clarify the concept and related terminology.

Date: 2008-06-01

Creator: Stephen Polasky, Erik Nelson, Jeff Camm, Blair Csuti, Paul, Fackler, Eric Lonsdorf, Claire Montgomery, Denis White, Jeff Arthur

Access: Open access

Expanding human population and economic growth have led to large-scale conversion of natural habitat to human-dominated landscapes with consequent large-scale declines in biodiversity. Conserving biodiversity, while at the same time meeting expanding human needs, is an issue of utmost importance. In this paper we develop a spatially explicit landscape-level model for analyzing the biological and economic consequences of alternative land-use patterns. The spatially explicit biological model incorporates habitat preferences, area requirements and dispersal ability between habitat patches for terrestrial vertebrate species to predict the likely number of species that will be sustained on the landscape. The spatially explicit economic model incorporates site characteristics and location to predict economic returns for a variety of potential land uses. We apply the model to search for efficient land-use patterns that maximize biodiversity conservation objectives for given levels of economic returns, and vice versa. We apply the model to the Willamette Basin, Oregon, USA. By thinking carefully about the arrangement of activities, we find land-use patterns that sustain high levels of biodiversity and economic returns. Compared to the 1990 land-use pattern, we show that both biodiversity conservation and the value of economic activity could be increased substantially. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Date: 2013-05-07

Creator: Yao Tang, Haifang Huang

Access: Open access

We estimate the effects of real exchange rate movements on employment in US cities between 2003 and 2010. We explore the differences in the composition of local industries to construct city-specific changes in exchange rates and estimate their effects on local employment in manufacturing industries and in nonmanufacturing industries. Controlling for year and city fixed effects, we find that a depreciation of the US dollar increased local employment in the manufacturing industries, our proxy for the tradable sector. The depreciation also increased employment in the nonmanufacturing industries, the nontradable sector. Furthermore, the effects on nonmanufacturing employment were stronger in cities that had a higher fraction of manufacturing employment, indicating the exchange rate movements’ indirect effects through the manufacturing industries. We also consider an alternative definition of the tradable sector that is broadened to include five service industries. The findings are similar.

Date: 2022-01-01

Creator: Levi McAtee

Access: Open access

Do minimum wage increases serve as stepping-stones to higher-paying jobs for low-pay workers? This paper analyzes the impact of state minimum wage policy on the one-year wage growth rates of individuals across the wage distribution and whether that impact changes for individuals in highly monopsonistic industries. I review the recent literature on the disemployment effect, the impact of the minimum wage on wage growth rates, the nature of monopsonistic industries, and the relationship between the minimum wage and monopsony power. I offer theoretical reasons why the minimum wage may impact the wage growth rates of individuals in monopsonistic industries differently than it impacts those of individuals in competitive industries. I then re-estimate Lopresti’s and Mumford’s (2016) panel fixed effects model to determine how the effect of a minimum wage increase depends nonlinearly on the size of the increase. Using data from 2005-2008, Lopresti and Mumford found that small minimum wage increases have a significant negative impact on wage growth rates, while large minimum wage increases have a significant positive impact. Using data from 2016-2019, I find similar results. As my primary empirical contribution, I test whether individuals in highly monopsonistic industries experience minimum wage changes differently than individuals in more competitive industries. I find monopsony power in the form of high labor immobility primarily impacts the wage growth rates of high-pay workers and does not influence how low-pay workers experience minimum wage changes. Finally, I recommend policymakers impose larger minimum wage increases to avoid impeding the wage-growth of low-pay workers.

Date: 2022-01-01

Creator: Katherine Fosburgh

Access: Open access

Habitat destruction is the leading cause of biodiversity loss in the US. Under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), habitat deemed essential to endangered and threatened species recovery is proposed as critical habitat (CH). CH areas are subject to regulations that could alter land development plans or increase costs. The potential economic opportunity cost created by CH regulations may lead to the exclusion of land proposed for CH designation, thereby reducing the conservation benefits of the CH rule. In this paper, I use a unique dataset collected from Federal Register (FR) documents to estimate the reduction in CH acreage from proposed to final ruling, both on the extensive and intensive margin. I find a negative relationship between the level of household income in an area proposed for CH and the probability that a CH gains acreage or maintains acreage during the establishment process. I also find some evidence that higher household income in a CH area is associated with a greater relative loss in acreage between proposal and finalization. I also find that private land proposed for CH designation is less likely to be in the final designation than federal land. Overall, my results suggest that economic considerations influence CH allocation decisions. Whether reducing the amount of private land subject to CH designations is socially efficient depends on the unknown economic benefit of private land exclusions versus the cost of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss that may result from not protecting all land deemed vital to species recovery.

Date: 2020-06-03

Creator: Erik Nelson

Access: Open access

Glaeser et al. (2008) argue that the relative distribution of poor and rich households (HHs) in American cities is "strongly" explained by the spatial location of the cities' public transportation (PT) networks. Among their claims: 1) The broad distribution of poor and rich HHs in the typical American city is consistent with a basic monocentric city model that includes commute technology speeds; 2) Poor commuters will overwhelmingly transition from commuting by PT to car if they experience a substantial increase in their HH’s income; 3) areas in American cities that receive new PT infrastructure become poorer over time. Using 2017 data I find empirical evidence that partially or wholly contradicts these three claims. First, as of 2017, the observed concentration of poor HHs in the inner city and rich HHs in the suburbs of the US’ smaller cities cannot be explained by monocentric model that includes commute speeds. Second, as of 2017, significant increases in poor HHs’ incomes were not expected to lead to a "massive shift" towards car commuting in these HHs; most of these poor workers commute by car already. Third, using data from four cities that expanded their light-rail and rapid-bus network in the early 2000s, I find that neighborhoods surrounding new light-rail or rapid-bus stations either saw little change in their income patterns or became slightly richer after station opening. In conclusion, as of 2017, the spatial distribution of HH incomes within American urban areas is not as intricately linked to the location of PT networks as Glaeser et al. (2008) would have us believe. As an addendum to the analysis I add some thoughts on how the COVID-19 pandemic might affect commuting behavior and income distributions within urban areas over the next decade.

Date: 2013-05-01

Creator: Joseph S Durgin

Access: Open access

This paper explores the effects of patient travel distance on hospital profit margins, with consideration to the effects of travel subsidies on hospital pricing. We develop a model in which hospital agglomeration leads to a negative relationship between profit margins and patient travel distance, challenging the standard IO theory that profit margins are higher for firms with greater distances of customer travel. Using data on patient visits and hospital finances from the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (OSHPD), we test our theory and confirm that a hospital tends to have less pricing power if it draws patients from beyond its local cluster. We then consider how our results might justify the subsidizing of patient travel by insurers and government payers. Lastly, we present an argument for why the ubiquitous Hirschman-Herfindahl index of market concentration can be robust to owner and system-level hospital cooperation.

Date: 2010-12-15

Creator: Yao Tang

Access: Open access

Although real currency appreciations pose direct difficulties for exporters and import-competing firms as they will face more intense competition, is it possible that such competition spurs firms to improve productivity? To answer this question, the paper first constructs a theoretical model to show how the competitive pressures of currency appreciations induce firms to improve productivity by adopting new technologies. In addition, the model predicts that during appreciations there will be a positive relation between market concentration and improvements in productivity for industries highly exposed to trade, because the marginal benefits of productivity improvement will be bigger for firms with a larger market share. The paper then examines Canadian manufacturing data from 1997 to 2006, and finds evidence consistent with model predictions. I find that growth rates of labor productivity were on average higher during the Canadian dollar appreciation between 2002 and 2006, after controlling for industry characteristics. Within the group of highly traded Canadian industries, the more concentrated ones experienced larger growth in labor productivity.

Date: 2020-06-01

Creator: Marcel Garz, Gaurav Sood, Daniel F. Stone, Justin Wallace

Access: Open access

We conduct across-outlet and within-outlet (and within-topic) analyses of “congenially” slanted news. We study “horse race” news (news on candidates' chances in an upcoming election) from six major online outlets for the 2012 and 2016 US presidential campaigns. We find robust evidence that horse race headlines were slanted congenially with respect to the preferences of the outlets' typical readers. However, evidence of congenial slant in the timing and frequency of horse race stories is weaker. We also find limited evidence of greater within-outlet demand for headlines most congenial to outlets' typical readers, and somewhat stronger evidence of greater demand for relatively uncongenial headlines. We discuss how various aspects of our results are consistent with each of the major mechanisms driving slant studied in the theoretical literature, and may help explain when each mechanism is more likely to come into play. In particular, readers may be more likely to click on uncongenial headlines due to inferring that these stories are particularly informative when they stand in contrast to an outlet's typically congenial slant.

Date: 2001-01-01

Creator: B. Zorina Khan, Kenneth L. Sokoloff

Access: Open access

• Embargo End Date: 2026-05-18

Date: 2023-01-01

Creator: Emma A. Bomfim

Access: Embargoed

• Restriction End Date: 2025-06-01

Date: 2024-01-01

Creator: Aditya S Pall-Pareek

Access: Access restricted to the Bowdoin Community

Date: 2025-01-01

Creator: Jane McCarter

Access: Permanent restriction

Date: 2017-05-26

Creator: Nicole Sadowsky, Erik Nelson

Access: Open access

Since 2011, the private ride-hailing companies Uber and Lyft have expanded into more and more US cities. We use regression discontinuity design to examine the impact of Uber and Lyft’s entry on public transportation use in the US’ largest urban areas. In most cases, entry into cities by the two ride-hailing companies was staggered: Uber entered first followed some months later by Lyft. We find that public transportation use increased in an urban area, all else equal, immediately following the first entry. However, we find that the spike in public transportation use after first entry disappeared following the entry of the second company. In fact there is some evidence that monthly public transportation ridership levels fell below their pre-first entry levels. In other words, the joint presence of the two major private ride-hailing services transformed ride-hailing services from a public transportation complement to a public transportation substitute, at least in the studied urban areas. We speculate that the first entrant complemented public transportation use for some in an urban area by solving the “last-mile” problem and by providing a potentially safer option at night when public transportation service has been reduced. However, we speculate the second entrant is likely to have spurred price competition in the urban area’s ride-hailing duopoly market and an increase in ride-hailing car supply. This competitive effect could have tipped the scales, making an entire trip with a ride-hailing service more cost-effective and convenient than splitting a trip between a ride-share company and public transportation.

Date: 2019-02-01

Creator: Erik Nelson, John Fitzgerald, Nathan Tefft

Access: Open access

Consumer spending on organic food products has grown rapidly. Some claim that organics have ecological, equity, and health advantages over conventional food and therefore should be subsidized. Here we explore the distributive impacts of an organic fruit subsidy that reduces the retail price of organic fruit in the US by 10 percent. We estimate the impact of the subsidy on organic fruit demand in a representative poor, middle income, and rich US household using three analytical methods; including two econometric and one machine learning. We do not find strong evidence of regressive redistribution due to our simulated organic fruit subsidy; the poor household’s relative reaction to the subsidy is not much different than the reaction at the other two households. However, the infra-marginal savings from the subsidy tend to be larger in richer households.

Date: 2013-08-01

Creator: Stephen Polasky, David Lewis, Andrew Plantinga, Erik Nelson

Access: Open access

Many ecosystem services are public goods whose provision depends on the spatial pattern of land use. The pattern of land use is often determined by the decisions of multiple private landowners. Increasing the provision of ecosystem services, while beneficial for society as a whole, may be costly to private landowners. A regulator interested in providing incentives to landowners for increased provision of ecosystem services often lacks complete information on landowners’ costs. The combination of spatially-dependent benefits and asymmetric cost information means that the optimal provision of ecosystem services cannot be achieved using standard regulatory or payment for ecosystem services (PES) approaches. Here we show that an auction that pays a landowner for the increased value of ecosystem services generated by the landowner’s actions provides incentives for landowners to truthfully reveal cost information, and allows the regulator to implement the optimal provision of ecosystem services, even in the case with spatially-dependent benefits and asymmetric information.

Date: 2016-09-01

Creator: Erik Nelson, Clare Bates Congdon

Access: Open access

We identify the agricultural inputs that drove the growth in global and regional crop yields from 1975 to the mid-2000s. We find that improvements in agricultural technology, increased fertilizer use, and changes in crop mix around the world explained most of the gain in global crop yields, although impacts varied across the latitude gradient. Climate change over this time period caused yields to be only slightly lower than they would have been otherwise. In some cases cropland extensification had as much of a negative impact on global and regional yields as climate change. To maintain the momentum in yield growth across the globe 1) use of agricultural chemicals and investment in agricultural technology in the tropics must increase rapidly and 2) international trade in agricultural products must expand significantly.

Date: 2016-06-01

Creator: Daniel F. Stone, Jeremy Arkes

Access: Open access

Pope and Schweitzer (2011) study predictions of prospect theory for the reference point of par on the current hole in professional golf. We study prospect-theory predictions of three other plausible reference points: par for recent holes, for the round, and for the tournament. A potentially competing force is momentum in quality of play, that is, the hot or cold hand. While prospect theory predicts negative serial correlation in better (worse)-than-average performance across holes, the hot (cold) hand implies the opposite. We find evidence that, for each of the reference points we study, when scores are better than par, hot-hand effects are dominated by prospect-theory effects. These effects can occur via two mechanisms: greater conservatism or less effort. We find evidence that the former (latter) dominates for scores closer to (further from) the reference point. We also find evidence of prospect theory effects (greater risk seeking) when scores are worse than par for the round in Round 1 and of cold-hand effects for scores worse than par for the tournament in Round 3. The magnitudes of some of the joint effects are comparable to those found by Pope and Schweitzer and other related papers. We conclude by discussing how, rather than compete, prospect-theory and cold-hand forces might also cause one another.

Date: 2013-06-11

Creator: Kent Kovacs, Stephen Polasky, Erik Nelson, Bonnie L. Keeler, Derric, Pennington, Andrew J. Plantinga, Steven J. Taff

Access: Open access

We evaluate the return on investment (ROI) from public land conservation in the state of Minnesota, USA. We use a spatially-explicit modeling tool, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), to estimate how changes in land use and land cover (LULC), including public land acquisitions for conservation, influence the joint provision and value of multiple ecosystem services. We calculate the ROI of a public conservation acquisition as the ratio of the present value of ecosystem services generated by the conservation to the cost of the conservation. For the land scenarios analyzed, carbon sequestration services generated the greatest benefits followed by water quality improvements and recreation opportunities. We found ROI values ranged from 0.21 to 5.28 depending on assumptions about future land use change, service values, and discount rate. Our study suggests conservation is a good investment as long as investments are targeted to areas with low land costs and high service values. © 2013 Kovacs et al.

Date: 2020-02-01

Creator: Daniel F. Stone

Access: Open access

I present a model of affective polarization—growth in hostility over time between two parties—via quasi-Bayesian inference. In the model, two agents repeatedly choose actions. Each choice is based on a balance of concerns for private interests and the social good. More weight is put on private interests when an agent's character is intrinsically more self-serving and when the other agent is believed to be more self-serving. Each agent Bayesian updates about the other's character, and dislikes the other more when she is perceived as more self-serving. I characterize the effects on growth in dislike of three biases: a prior bias against the other agent's character, the false consensus bias, and limited strategic thinking. Prior bias against the other's character remains constant or declines over time, and actions do not diverge. The other two biases cause actions to become more extreme over time and repeatedly be “worse” than expected, causing mutual growth in dislike, that is, affective polarization. The magnitude of dislike can become arbitrarily large—even when both players are arbitrarily “good” (unselfish). The results imply that seemingly irrelevant cognitive biases can be an important cause of the devolution of relationships, in politics and beyond, and that subtlety and unawareness of bias can be key factors driving the degree of polarization.

Date: 2025-01-01

Creator: Siyi (Jonathan) Li

Access: Open access

We use a randomized discrete‑choice experiment with 381 French adults to investigate why France’s wine consumption decline is most pronounced among the young. The treatment group subjects were primed via a video about France’s viticultural heritage, which raises the probability of choosing French red wine over French amber beer by 14 percentage points for Generation X but lowers it by 15 points for Generation Z. Using observational data collected after the experiment, 2SLS estimates show that the decline of wine in France is primarily due to a weakened sense of “French wine identity.” The study provides the first causal evidence for the role of identity in consumption choices and cautions that heritage‑based marketing may backfire with younger cohorts, suggesting instead modernity‑ and sustainability‑oriented strategies for the wine sector.

Date: 2025-01-01

Creator: Luisa Isabelle Louchheim

Access: Access restricted to the Bowdoin Community

Date: 2019-02-05

Creator: W. K. Smith, E. Nelson, J. A. Johnson, S. Polasky, J. C., Milder, J. S. Gerber, P. C. West, S. Siebert, K. A. Brauman

Access: Open access

Voluntary sustainability standards (VSS) are stakeholder-derived principles with measurable and enforceable criteria to promote sustainable production outcomes. While institutional commitments to use VSS to meet sustainable procurement policies have grown rapidly over the past decade, we still have relatively little understanding of the (i) direct environmental benefits of large-scale VSS adoption; (ii) potential perverse indirect impacts of adoption; and (iii) implementation pathways. Here, we illustrate and address these knowledge gaps using an ecosystem service modeling and scenario analysis of Bonsucro, the leading VSS for sugarcane. We find that global compliance with the Bonsucro environmental standards would reduce current sugarcane production area (−24%), net tonnage (−11%), irrigation water use (−65%), nutrient loading (−34%), and greenhouse gas emissions from cultivation (−51%). Under a scenario of doubled global sugarcane production, Bonsucro adoption would further limit water use and greenhouse gas emissions by preventing sugarcane expansion into water-stressed and high-carbon stock ecosystems. This outcome was achieved via expansion largely on existing agricultural lands. However, displacement of other crops could drive detrimental impacts from indirect land use. We find that over half of the potential direct environmental benefits of Bonsucro standards under the doubling scenario could be achieved by targeting adoption in just 10% of global sugarcane production areas. However, designing policy that generates the most environmentally beneficial Bonsucro adoption pathway requires a better understanding of the economic and social costs of VSS adoption. Finally, we suggest research directions to advance sustainable consumption and production.

Date: 2013-11-01

Creator: Erik J. Nelson, Peter Kareiva, Mary Ruckelshaus, Katie Arkema, Gary, Geller, Evan Girvetz, Dave Goodrich, Virginia Matzek, Malin Pinsky

Access: Open access

Climate change alters the functions of ecological systems. As a result, the provision of ecosystem services and the well-being of people that rely on these services are being modified. Climate models portend continued warming and more frequent extreme weather events across the US. Such weather-related disturbances will place a premium on the ecosystem services that people rely on. We discuss some of the observed and anticipated impacts of climate change on ecosystem service provision and livelihoods in the US. We also highlight promising adaptive measures. The challenge will be choosing which adaptive strategies to implement, given limited resources and time. We suggest using dynamic balance sheets or accounts of natural capital and natural assets to prioritize and evaluate national and regional adaptation strategies that involve ecosystem services. © The Ecological Society of America.

Date: 2013-03-10

Creator: Yao Tang, Daniel Shapiro, Miaojun Wang, Weiying Zhang

Access: Open access

We investigate the degree to which corporate governance and ownership affects the innovation performance of firms in China with a particular focus on privately owned small and medium enterprises (SMEs). We hypothesize that (1) board-related governance measures will enhance innovation because they improve monitoring and provide access to necessary resources; (2) ownership concentration initially facilitates innovation because large shareholders are more likely to commit to the long-term nature of innovation, and have the incentive to monitor managers whose time horizon may be shorter; however we argue that these effects weaken as large shareholders becomes entrenched at higher levels of concentration; and (3) hiring an external CEO will enhance innovation both by ensuring professional management of the company, and by alleviating the entrenchment possibilities associated with large shareholders. These hypotheses are tested using a unique sample of 370 mostly private and relatively small Chinese firms in Zhejiang province, for the period 2004 to 2006. The results suggest that for this sample, corporate governance and ownership affect innovation activity when measured by patenting activity, but not when measured by new product sales.

Date: 2011-01-01

Creator: David J. Lewis, Andrew J. Plantinga, Erik Nelson, Stephen Polasky

Access: Open access

Habitat loss is a primary cause of loss of biodiversity but conserving habitat for species presents challenges. Land parcels differ in their ability to produce returns for landowners and landowners may have private information about the value of the land to them. Land parcels also differ in the type and quality of habitat and the spatial pattern of land use across multiple landowners is important for determining the conservation value of parcels. This paper analyzes the relative efficiency of simple voluntary incentive-based policies in achieving biodiversity conservation objectives. This topic is important not just for biodiversity conservation but for any effort to provide a public good requiring coordination across multiple decision-makers who have some degree of private information. We develop a method that integrates spatially explicit data, an econometric model of private land-use decisions, landscape simulations, a biological model of biodiversity as a function of landscape pattern, and an algorithm that estimates the set of efficient solutions. These methods allow us to simulate landowner responses to policies, measure the consequences of these decisions for biodiversity conservation, and compare these outcomes to efficient outcomes to show the relative efficiency of various policy approaches. We find substantial differences in biodiversity conservation scores generated by simple voluntary incentive-based policies and efficient solutions. The performance of incentive-based policies is particularly poor at low levels of the conservation budget where spatial fragmentation of conserved parcels is a large concern. Performance can be improved by encouraging agglomeration of conserved habitat and by incorporating basic biological information, such as that on rare habitats, into the selection criteria. © 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Date: 2012-04-01

Creator: V. C. Radeloff, E. Nelson, A. J. Plantinga, D. J. Lewis, D., Helmers, J. J. Lawler, J. C. Withey, F. Beaudry, S. Martinuzzi

Access: Open access

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (\-16%) and pasture (\-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence. © 2012 by the Ecological Society of America.

Date: 2021-12-01

Creator: Gonca Senel, Mark L.J. Wright

Access: Open access

Recent work has found that countries with older populations face steeper yield curves and issue shorter maturity debt than do younger countries. We reexamine these findings using a new database of public debt maturity and yields for OECD countries. We first show that the behavior of eurozone countries in the pre-euro period drives these results. Next, including more recent data from the post-euro period, we show that the relationship between population age, maturity, and yield curve slopes disappears. This finding is robust to excluding high-credit-risk countries. Last, we show that these patterns reemerge after the European debt crisis, suggesting that eurozone capital markets have resegmented.

Date: 2019-04-01

Creator: Daniel F. Stone

Access: Open access

Extreme partisan animosity has been on the rise in the US and is prevalent around the world. This hostility is typically attributed to social group identity, motivated reasoning, or a combination thereof. In this paper, I empirically examine a novel contributing factor: the “unmotivated” cognitive bias of overprecision (overconfidence in precision of beliefs). Overprecision could cause partisan hostility indirectly via inflated confidence in one's own ideology, partisan identity, or perceptions of social distance between the parties. Overprecision could also cause this hostility directly by causing excessively strong inferences from observed information that is either skewed against the out-party or simply misunderstood. Using a nationally representative sample, I find consistent support for direct effects of overprecision and mixed support for indirect effects. The point estimates imply a one standard deviation increase in a respondent's overprecision predicts as much as a 0.71 standard deviation decline in relative out-party favorability.

Date: 2020-09-01

Creator: Marcel Garz, Jil Sörensen, Daniel F. Stone

Access: Open access

This study investigates the effects of variation in “congeniality” of news on Facebook user engagement (likes, shares, and comments). We compile an original data set of Facebook posts by 84 German news outlets on politicians that were investigated for criminal offenses from January 2012 to June 2017. We also construct an index of each outlet's media slant by comparing the language of the outlet with that of the main political parties, which allows us to measure the congeniality of the posts. We find that user engagement with congenial posts is higher than with uncongenial ones, especially in terms of likes. The within-outlet, within-topic design allows us to infer that the greater engagement with congenial news is likely driven by psychological and social factors, rather than a desire for accurate or otherwise instrumental information.

Date: 2023-01-01

Creator: Anna G Constantine

Access: Open access

Special Purpose Acquisition Companies marked a restructuring of the often-fraudulent 1980s blank check company, an entity gathering funds to merge or acquire another business entity. Based on the Special Purpose Acquisition Company structure, “the stock price should be greater than or equal to the pro-rata trust value, discounted from the SPAC’s expiration date, at all times prior to the shareholder vote date.” In this study, I research the “no target” phase of the Special Purpose Acquisition Company’s lifecycle to evaluate whether there is a difference between their trust value and their market capitalization. Based on previous research, we know that there is a discount to trust value prior to 2009; however, I postulate the decoupling of the SPAC merger approval vote and the vote for investors to redeem may eliminate this discount. Using a first difference regression to establish the premium to the average trust value of 1,057 Special Purpose Acquisition Companies traded between 2005 and 2022, we find that both the period before 2010 and after 2010 trades at a negative premium, or discount. Because the decoupling of the merger vote and the redemption vote did not eliminate the negative premium to trust value, I postulate that the structure of SPAC redemptions, modeled as a call option with decaying time value, may be responsible for this mispricing. I also draw opportunities for future research to investigate if the embedding of a call option into the SPAC redemption structure discourages shareholders from desiring merger outcomes early in the SPAC lifecycle.

• Restriction End Date: 2029-06-01

Date: 2024-01-01

Creator: Tingjun Huang

Access: Access restricted to the Bowdoin Community

Date: 2014-05-20

Creator: Joshua J. Lawler, David J. Lewis, Erik Nelson, Andrew J. Plantinga, Stephen, Polasky, John C. Withey, David P. Helmers, Sebastián Martinuzzi, Derric Penningtonh

Access: Open access

Providing food, timber, energy, housing, and other goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem functions and biodiversity that underpin their sustainable supply, is one of the great challenges of our time. Understanding the drivers of land-use change and how policies can alter land-use change will be critical to meeting this challenge. Here we project land-use change in the contiguous United States to 2051 under two plausible baseline trajectories of economic conditions to illustrate how differences in underlying market forces can have large impacts on land-use with cascading effects on ecosystem services and wildlife habitat. We project a large increase in croplands (28.2 million ha) under a scenario with high crop demand mirroring conditions starting in 2007, compared with a loss of cropland (11.2 million ha) mirroring conditions in the 1990s. Projected land-use changes result in increases in carbon storage, timber production, food production from increased yields, and >10% decreases in habitat for 25% of modeled species. We also analyze policy alternatives designed to encourage forest cover and natural landscapes and reduce urban expansion. Although these policy scenarios modify baseline land-use patterns, they do not reverse powerful underlying trends. Policy interventions need to be aggressive to significantly alter underlying land-use change trends and shift the trajectory of ecosystem service provision.

Date: 2020-07-01

Creator: Erik Nelson, Maggie Rogers, Spencer Wood, Jesse Chung, Bonnie, Keeler

Access: Open access

We use large dataset on US lakes from 17 states to estimate the relationship between summertime visits to lakes as proxied by social media use and the lakes' water quality, amenities, and surrounding landscape features and socioeconomic conditions. Prior to estimating these relationships we worked on 1) selecting a parsimonious set of explanatory variables from a roster of more than 100 lake attributes and 2) accounting for the non-random pattern of missing water quality data. These steps 1) improved the interpretability of the estimated visit models and 2) widened our estimated models' scope of statistical inference. We used Machine Learning techniques to select parsimonious sets of explanatory variables and multiple imputation to estimate water quality at lakes missing this data. We found the following relationships between summertime visits to lake and their attributes across the 17-state region. First, we estimated that every additional meter of average summer-time Secchi depth between 1995 and 2014 was associated with at least 7.0% more summer-time visits to a lake between 2005 to 2014, all else equal. Second, we consistently found that lake amenities, such as beaches, boat launches, and public toilets, were more powerful predictors of visits than water quality. Third, we also found that visits to a lake were strongly influenced by the lake's accessibility and its distance to nearby lakes and the amenities the nearby lakes offered. Finally, our results highlight the biased results that "big data"-based research on recreation can generate if non-random missing observation patterns in the data are not corrected.

Date: 2016-02-25

Creator: B. Zorina Khan

Access: Open access

The French economy has been criticized for a lack of integration of women in business and for the prevalence of inefficient family firms. A sample drawn from patent and exhibition records is used to examine the role of women in enterprise and invention in France. Middle-class women were extensively engaged in entrepreneurship and innovation, and the empirical analysis indicates that their commercial efforts were significantly enhanced by association with family firms. Such formerly invisible achievements suggest a more productive role for family-based enterprises, as a means of incorporating relatively disadvantaged groups into the market economy as managers and entrepreneurs. This business model .... melds entrepreneurial passion with a long family tradition. - Wendel Company (1704-2014) 1

Date: 2013-10-28

Creator: Yao Tang, Yoshinori Kurokawa, Jiaren Pang

Access: Open access

We construct a dynamic Ricardian model of trade with money and nominal exchange rate. The model implies that the nominal wages of the trading countries are more likely to exhibit stronger positive comovements when the countries fix their bilateral exchange rates. Panel regression results based on data from OECD countries from 1973 to 2012 suggest that countries in the European Monetary Union (EMU) experienced stronger positive wage comovements with their main trade partners. When we restrict the regression to the subsample of the EMU countries, we find a significant increase in wage comovements after these countries joined the EMU in 1999 compared to the pre-euro era. In comparison, when the sample is restricted to the non-EMU countries, we find no evidence that non-currency union pegs affected the wage comovements.

Date: 2021-01-01

Creator: José Edwards, Stephen Meardon

Access: Open access

In 2018, Clarivate Analytics, publisher of the Web of Science Journal Citation Reports (JCR), suppressed publication of the 2017 Journal Impact Factor (JIF) for three of the four journals that it then indexed in the academic field of history of economics. Clarivate judged one of the journals, History of Economic Ideas (HEI), to be the “donor” of citations that distorted the impact factors of the European Journal of the History of Economic Thought (EJHET) and the Journal of the History of Economic Thought (JHET). The other journal, History of Political Economy (HOPE), was not included in that judgment. Our purpose is to define the JIF, summarize the controversy that gave rise to this symposium, and discuss methodologically and historically some of the problems with the use of citation indexes in general and the JIF in particular. We show how these problems pertain differently to the scholarly field of the history of economics than to economics in general. In so doing we also introduce the following five articles of this symposium.

Date: 2006-07-25

Creator: Jason Hill, Erik Nelson, David Tilman, Stephen Polasky, Douglas, Tiffany

Access: Open access

Negative environmental consequences of fossil fuels and concerns about petroleum supplies have spurred the search for renewable transportation biofuels. To be a viable alternative, a biofuel should provide a net energy gain, have environmental benefits, be economically competitive, and be producible in large quantities without reducing food supplies. We use these criteria to evaluate, through life-cycle accounting, ethanol from corn grain and biodiesel from soybeans. Ethanol yields 25% more energy than the energy invested in its production, whereas biodiesel yields 93% more. Compared with ethanol, biodiesel releases just 1.0%, 8.3%, and 13% of the agricultural nitrogen, phosphorus, and pesticide pollutants, respectively, per net energy gain. Relative to the fossil fuels they displace, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced 12% by the production and combustion of ethanol and 41% by biodiesel. Biodiesel also releases less air pollutants per net energy gain than ethanol. These advantages of biodiesel over ethanol come from lower agricultural inputs and more efficient conversion of feedstocks to fuel. Neither biofuel can replace much petroleum without impacting food supplies. Even dedicating all U.S. corn and soybean production to biofuels would meet only 12% of gasoline demand and 6% of diesel demand. Until recent increases in petroleum prices, high production costs made biofuels unprofitable without subsidies. Biodiesel provides sufficient environmental advantages to merit subsidy. Transportation biofuels such as synfuel hydrocarbons or cellulosic ethanol, if produced from low-input biomass grown on agriculturally marginal land or from waste biomass, could provide much greater supplies and environmental benefits than food-based biofuels. © 2006 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Date: 2010-12-01

Creator: Erik Nelson, Heather Sander, Peter Hawthorne, Marc Conte, Driss, Ennaanay, Stacie Wolny, Steven Manson, Stephen Polasky

Access: Open access

Background: As the global human population grows and its consumption patterns change, additional land will be needed for living space and agricultural production. A critical question facing global society is how to meet growing human demands for living space, food, fuel, and other materials while sustaining ecosystem services and biodiversity [1]. Methodology/Principal Findings: We spatially allocate two scenarios of 2000 to 2015 global areal change in urban land and cropland at the grid cell-level and measure the impact of this change on the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity. The models and techniques used to spatially allocate land-use/land-cover (LULC) change and evaluate its impact on ecosystems are relatively simple and transparent [2]. The difference in the magnitude and pattern of cropland expansion across the two scenarios engenders different tradeoffs among crop production, provision of species habitat, and other important ecosystem services such as biomass carbon storage. For example, in one scenario, 5.2 grams of carbon stored in biomass is released for every additional calorie of crop produced across the globe; under the other scenario this tradeoff rate is 13.7. By comparing scenarios and their impacts we can begin to identify the global pattern of cropland and irrigation development that is significant enough to meet future food needs but has less of an impact on ecosystem service and habitat provision. Conclusions/Significance: Urban area and croplands will expand in the future to meet human needs for living space, livelihoods, and food. In order to jointly provide desired levels of urban land, food production, and ecosystem service and species habitat provision the global society will have to become much more strategic in its allocation of intensively managed land uses. Here we illustrate a method for quickly and transparently evaluating the performance of potential global futures.

Date: 2014-01-01

Creator: Jarrod Olson, Daniel F. Stone

Access: Open access

U.S. college football’s traditional bowl system, and lack of a postseason play-off tournament, has been controversial for years. The conventional wisdom is that a play-off would be a more fair way to determine the national champion, and more fun for fans to watch. The colleges finally agreed to begin a play-off in the 2014-2015 season, but with just four teams, and speculation continues that more teams will be added soon. A subtle downside to adding play-off teams is that it reduces the significance of regular season games.We use the framework of Ely, Frankel, and Kamenica (in press) to directly estimate the utility fans would get from this significance, that is, utility from suspense, under a range of play-off scenarios. Our results consistently indicate that play-off expansion causes a loss in regular season suspense utility greater than the gain in the postseason, implying the traditional bowl system (two team play-off) is suspense-optimal. We analyze and discuss implications for TV viewership and other contexts.

Date: 2020-01-01

Creator: Madeleine Rose Dupré

Access: Access restricted to the Bowdoin Community

Date: 2021-01-01

Creator: Gavin T Shilling

Access: Open access

The Great Recession of 2007 and 2008 exposed the risks of excessive borrowing. We learned the essential economic principle that greater leverage harbors greater risk. Although this global economic contraction was driven primarily by booming private credit expansion, economically inefficient incentives in the public sector, such as short-term reelection concerns, may lead politicians to engage in rash deficit- financed, fiscal spending. The primary purpose of this research is to assess the economic costs of heightened, preexisting government leverage on real economic outcomes during recessionary periods, focusing on both banking and non-banking crisis recessions. In both advanced economies and emerging economies, this study confirms that banking recessions are associated with more severe economic contractions and more persistent output declines than normal recessions. In advanced economies, GDP recovers quickly and strongly with expansionary and supportive fiscal policy during low debt recessions, even with depressed private investment. While GDP recovers slowly and weakly with less expansionary fiscal policy during high debt recessions, even with strong private investment. Thus, the social marginal benefit of public sector investment exceeds the social marginal benefit of private sector investment in advanced economies. In emerging economies, GDP recovers quickly and strongly with strong private investment during high debt recessions, even with weak fiscal spending. While GDP recovers slowly and weakly with depressed private investment during low debt recessions, even with expansionary and supportive fiscal policy. Thus, the social marginal benefit of private sector investment exceeds the social marginal benefit of public sector investment in emerging economies.

Date: 2025-01-01

Creator: Sujan Garapati

Access: Open access

Since 2001, Japan has experienced two extended quantitative easing (QE) periods that aimed to address its low growth and deflationary environment. This paper investigates the transmission channels of the country’s QE policies during both periods: QE1 and Abenomics. Investigating three primary QE channels, signaling, inflation, and safety, the analysis identifies a signaling channel with different characteristics during both periods, no inflation channel, and a safety channel with different strengths during both periods. During QE1, event dates signaled low yields on short- and medium-term bonds but not on long-term bonds, suggesting a weak signaling channel. In contrast, under Abenomics, the signaling channel was strong for long-term bonds, reflecting a credible commitment to sustained low interest rates. Event dates in both periods were associated with deflation, so the evidence does not support the presence of an inflation channel. Across both periods, a significant safety channel was present. Investors paid a premium for safe assets that decreased yields as the BOJ purchased bonds, especially during Abenomics. The findings suggest that Abenomics was more successful at decreasing interest rates than QE1. Overall, this paper reveals that QE can effectively lower yields through signaling and safety effects but fails to raise inflation expectations in Japan.

Date: 2014-04-29

Creator: Stephen Polasky, David J. Lewis, Andrew J. Plantinga, Erik Nelson

Access: Open access

Many ecosystem services are public goods whose provision depends on the spatial pattern of land use. The pattern of land use is often determined by the decisions of multiple private landowners. Increasing the provision of ecosystem services, though beneficial for society as a whole, may be costly to private landowners. A regulator interested in providing incentives to landowners for increased provision of ecosystem services often lacks complete information on landowners' costs. The combination of spatially dependent benefits and asymmetric cost information means that the optimal provision of ecosystem services cannot be achieved using standard regulatory or payment for ecosystem services approaches. Here we show that an auction that sets payments between landowners and the regulator for the increased value of ecosystem services with conservation provides incentives for landowners to truthfully reveal cost information, and allows the regulator to implement the optimal provision of ecosystem services, even in the case with spatially dependent benefits and asymmetric information.